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A photograph of Nancy Guthrie is seen on a sign that people can leave messages on Feb. 26, 2026, in Tucson, Ariz.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images.

Nancy Guthrie disappeared over three months ago, and though there are no certainties about what happened, there are a lot of theories. Multiple experts have given their opinion on the case, especially because all the police have shared at this point have been surveillance photos and videos of a masked man. No motive, no real explanation of what happened.

One of the theories about what happened said that Nancy Guthrie was taken to Mexico. This came partly because of two ransom notes received from a person claiming to have information about the kidnapping. In the first note, they stated that Nancy Guthrie was dead, but promised to deliver the kidnappers. In the second one, they claimed they had seen her with the kidnappers in Sonora, Mexico.

Related: Who are Savannah Guthrie’s siblings?

Now Dave Smith, a retired lieutenant with the Arizona Department of Public Safety and a law enforcement consultant, is sharing his thoughts about whether Mexico is a possibility and what else could have happened to Guthrie. According to Smith, the suspect seen in the surveillance camera video appeared to be wearing his holstered pistol “Mexican carry” style.

“My first thought is always Mexico in a major crime, because it’s a great haven, and it’s hard for us to follow up on,” Smith told Fox News Digital. “But in this case, obviously there was somebody was taken with intent. And I think that that’s why we need to wonder, perhaps, was she taken to Mexico?”

Smith even theorized that the Mexico connection could have been downplayed because it would have made it a federal investigation. There has been a lot of back and forth between Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos and FBI Director Kash Patel about the timing of the FBI’s involvement in the case.

“My personal theory is, if Mexico was suspected, that would make it a federal investigation,” Smith said. “There seemed to be a great deal of effort to keep the feds out of this case. And the best way to do it was to deny any possibility of interstate or international transport of the person’s body or kidnapped.”

It’s a big accusation, and it could have caused a great delay in an investigation that was very much time sensitive.

Guthrie, whose daughter is Today show host Savannah Guthrie, lives about 60 miles from the border town of Nogales, Smith said. “You cross that border, on the Arizona side, it’s a small town, relatively small town,” he said. “You cross that border, it’s major urban area, 300,000 people.”

The retired police officer also explained that just a couple of miles outside of Nancy Guthrie’s house, there’s a desert “wash,” or a natural drainage ditch that is typical of the region. And the terrain might be making it difficult for law enforcement to locate evidence.

“The whole Tucson Valley is literally built around these arroyos, these ephemeral rivers,” he said. “This is literally your green belt here, only instead of parks and things like the rest of the nation has, we have this wonderful desert area. But again, it works between houses. It’s like a giant alley through the neighborhoods.”

And that presents a problem for the police. “The evidence is transitory,” he told Fox News Digital. “Once it rains, your footprints go away, the sun is hard on other forms of evidence and frankly this is a tough place to investigate crimes.”

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